According to the Outlook, global EV sales will continue to grow strongly in 2024 and reach around 17 million units by the end of this year. Sales increased by about 25% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2023, similar to the same period last year, but from a larger base. In the first three months of this year, the number of electric vehicles sold worldwide was roughly equivalent to the sales of the whole of 2020.

 

According to the IEA, significant investment in the EV supply chain, ongoing policy support, and declining prices for EVs and their batteries are expected to bring more significant changes to the EV industry in the coming years. If all announced energy and climate commitments are met on time, two-thirds of cars sold will be electric by 2035. In this context, the rapid adoption of electric vehicles – from cars to vans, trucks, buses, two-wheelers and three-wheelers – could avoid the need for around 12 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to the current total demand for road transport in China and Europe.

 

From the current situation, China, United States and Europe are important markets for the production and sales of electric vehicles in the world. By 2024, China's electric vehicle sales are expected to jump to around 10 million units, accounting for about 45% of total car sales in China, the IEA said. In the United States, about one out of every nine cars sold is expected to be electric. In Europe, electric vehicles will still account for about a quarter of all cars sold, despite a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales and the gradual removal of subsidies in some countries.

 

At present, the development of China's electric vehicle industry is in a leading position in the world, and Chinese car companies are further penetrating into overseas markets, and the export performance of electric vehicles is gratifying. According to the data released by the China Passenger Association, China's wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in March were 504,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% and a month-on-month increase of 89.0%; In March, the overall sales of true plug-in hybrid vehicles were 229,000 units, an increase of 84% year-on-year and 92% month-on-month. In March, the wholesale of extended-range vehicles was 76,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 103% and a month-on-month increase of 26%.

 

In March, NEV passenger vehicle exports totaled 120,000 units, reflecting a 70.9% y/y increase and a 52.8% m/m increase. It accounted for 29.7% of passenger car exports, up 5.6 percentage points from the same period last year. With the emergence of China's new energy vehicle scale advantage and the expansion of market demand, China's new energy vehicle brands are increasingly going abroad, and their recognition overseas continues to increase. From the monitoring of retail data in overseas markets exported by independent brands, A0 electric vehicles account for nearly 60% and are the absolute main force of independent exports, SAIC and other independent brands have a strong performance in Europe, and BYD is rising in the Southeast Asian market. In addition to the beautiful performance of traditional export car companies, recently, the exports of new forces have also gradually increased, and data in overseas markets have begun to appear.

 

"From January to February 2024, China's auto sales accounted for 32% of the world's share, of which new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 62% of the world's new energy vehicles. With the contribution of new energy vehicle exports, the overall world status of Chinese automakers has improved significantly, and the world share of Chery Automobile, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, and Great Wall Motor has increased significantly. The Federation of Passenger Cars pointed out that China's new energy vehicle exports to developed countries are showing a good trend. In 2024, vehicle exports will mainly be to Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Algeria and other markets, with the top five incremental markets contributing 69%, of which exports to Russia contribute a lot.

 

In terms of United States, the Biden administration has been committed to promoting the green transition of United States energy and the development of the electric vehicle industry, but the overall effect is not very optimistic. Previously, the Biden administration had pledged to build 500,000 EV charging stations in the United States by 2030. But more than two years after Congress appropriated $7.5 billion, only seven EV charging stations are operational in four states. This also raised questions from the Republicans in the House of Representatives.

 

In Europe, in recent years, the EU has continued to promote the green energy transition and reduce carbon emissions, with a view to achieving its carbon neutrality goal. The development of electric vehicles is an important part of this. However, judging by the actual results, the plan did not go smoothly. Currently, the average purchase price of internal combustion engine vehicles in Europe is still low, and the price of electric vehicles is relatively high. Previously, the EV industry relied on government subsidies, but subsidies were not sustainable. In Europe, the average cost of batteries alone is already 15,000 euros. In this context, the EU's plan to ban the sale of new petrol vehicles by 2035 could be hampered.

 

As for the future prospects for the global EV industry, the Outlook notes that ensuring the availability of public charging keeps pace with EV sales is critical to the continued growth of EVs. Compared to 2022, the number of public charging piles installed worldwide increased by 40% in 2023, and the growth rate of fast-charging charging piles outpaced that of slow-charging charging piles. However, in order to reach the level of electric vehicles promised by the government, the charging network needs to grow sixfold by 2035. At the same time, policy support and careful planning are essential to ensure that the greater demand for electricity from charging does not overwhelm the grid.

 

Source: Financial Times-China Financial News Network